Market Focus Analysis:
Pulse Focus 1: U.S. Secretary of State Rubio: The United States remains open to the Middle East conflict, willing to engage, negotiate, and resolve differences. The problem we face is that the other side does not take negotiations seriously.
Focus Analysis: We have previously explained that unless Israel re-enters direct conflict with Iran, or U.S. aircraft carriers are struck, other mutual frictions between the U.S. and Iran are unlikely to escalate in intensity. Instead, they are more likely to prompt both sides into a new round of negotiations.
Asset alert: U.S. crude oil prices have risen above 86, primarily supported by the recent tensions between the U.S. and Iran. If both sides begin new negotiations in the near future, oil prices could quickly lose their upward momentum. Watch for support around 85 during the day; a break below this level may trigger a decline toward 83.50 and 81.
Pulse Focus 2: South Korea’s KOSPI index surged 6.00% in early trading, with SK Hynix up 8.6% and Samsung Electronics rising 5.7%.
Focus Insight: Yesterday, we already interpreted Goldman Sachs’ remarks, clearly indicating our forecast of a potential market rebound in the near term. With South Korean retail investors rapidly unwinding their short-term leverage and U.S. inflation data showing a meaningful decline, global tech stocks are expected to experience a recovery wave—especially given that the U.S. June PCE data will be released next week.
Target Reminder: The Nasdaq 100 index target of 29,000 we mentioned yesterday has been reached. We continue to see potential for a rebound toward the 29,350/29,400 levels today.
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Gold: After a clean breakout above the 4035/50 level and confirmation via pullback, prices surged in the early session to break through the 4100 mark. For today’s trading, focus on the performance of the yellow and green zones in the plugin. For detailed positions, please consult the plugin.
(Gold 15-minute chart)
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Nasdaq: The price has risen above 29,000 as expected, but sustained upward momentum will require stimulus from earnings reports and a surge in liquidity. Therefore, we continue to monitor the liquidity around 28,800; after any pullback, watch for bullish signals on the rebound. For detailed positions, please consult the plugin.
(NASDAQ 15-minute chart)
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Crude oil: Rubio’s sudden statement that he does not rule out the possibility of negotiations could undermine the recent rebound in crude prices, potentially stripping them of sustained momentum. With both sides now nearing their limits in terms of pressure, any hint of potential talks could quickly cause prices to break below near-term support levels. For today, our plugin continues to recommend a sell-on-retest strategy following a breakout below key support. For detailed positioning, please consult the plugin.
(Crude Oil 15-minute Chart)
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